The EU has found that Microsoft and Activision combined could have a dominant position in PC gaming after their merger deal is finalized.
In these tables provided by Microsoft themselves, they gain 10 to 20 % of market share in the PC market after the deal. These tables are found in pages 38 and 39 of the EU decision on the Microsoft Activision deal.
The first table is focused on market share on PC. It shows that Microsoft has 0 to 5 % of market share worldwide, and Activision has 5 to 10 % market share. Combined, they earn 10 to 20 % market share, with 20 % reaching the threshold for the EU to investigate.
If we focus only on the European video game market, the results are similar, but it should be noted that Microsoft and Activision don’t become the number one publisher either in Europe or worldwide. Tencent emerges with somewhere between 20 to 30 % of market share, thanks to all the video game companies that they have money invested in.
If you may remember, Activision CEO Bobby Kotick had been alluding to this situation, and they shared the hard numbers proving that to the EU. Microsoft and Activision, both US based companies, are fighting for relevance and market share against non US companies. That doesn’t just mean Microsoft’s competition in the console space, Japanese companies Sony and Nintendo, but also Chinese companies Tencent, NetEase, and SmileGate.
When it comes to console market share, Microsoft and Activision potentially collects 10 to 20 % of market share worldwide, but only 5 to 10 % of the market in Europe. This is, of course, part of why the EU disregarded the console theory of harm. The market share of Microsoft and Activision combined does not reach the threshold for the EU to investigate if there will be competition concerns.
Finally, the combined PC and console markets shows that Microsoft and Activision combined would collect 10 to 20 % of the market share, worldwide and in Europe. This indicates just how substantial the PC gaming market is for Activision in Europe.
Of course, while Europe may care more about FIFA than Call of Duty, that may be balanced out by the popularity of Blizzard’s franchises, such as Hearthstone, World of Warcraft, and Diablo in Europe. After all, Blizzard has a lot of European studios as well.
Now, these are only part of the evidence the EU used to reach their decision. Their final decision involved accepting Microsoft’s remedies for specifically cloud gaming.
But, it’s an indication that Microsoft could do very well in the region after the deal is finalized. The EU gave them clearance, not based on if they will be too big or too small after the merger, but based on the potential harms and benefits of the merger to the EU.
