Even though we have a year to wait until the arrival of the highly anticipated GTA 6, there are some “lingering questions” that are already being asked by many gamers and analysts. The biggest one is the obvious “How much will the title sell at launch?” That question is fair to ask, because the hype behind the game alone will guarantee it sells well, but the question is, “How well?” The other question that some people, including those on Reddit, are asking is, “How much will it sell in its first year?” That is a fascinating question that is arguably more difficult to answer than you might expect.
First off, if you look at the chart on Reddit, you’ll see that the best-selling video games of all time are displayed, with Minecraft on top with over 350 million and Human Fall Flat in the tenth spot with 55 million sold. The Redditor in question asks if GTA 6 will outsell the entire list by the time its first year comes to an end.
The answer to that is “No.” Yeah, the overall answer is simple, but not for the reasons you suspect. Even those on Reddit wondered why this question was asked when that would be a feat of monumental proportions. A BETTER question that a different Redditor asked is “Will it crack the top ten in one year?” That is less easy to answer, because there are various factors that lead to great sales, not the least of which is the game’s quality and word of mouth from those who have played it.
However, the biggest factor that might hinder the game’s release… is the systems it’s releasing on. Currently, Rockstar Games is planning to release the game on the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S in 2026. That makes sense, as those systems are the “next-gen platforms” that can handle the game and the high-end graphics that were shown in the trailers.
Right now, the PS5 is at 85 million units sold, give or take. The Xbox Series X/S are a combined 33 million units sold, give or take. So, combined, they’re around 120 million; thus, the game could sell 120 million at launch, right? Wrong.
It’s disingenuous to think that everyone who owns those consoles will buy it. Plus, GTA 5 sold 11 million in its first 24 hours when the Xbox 360 and PS3 were basically at the end of their lifecycles and maxed out their sales, and yet, it didn’t come close to their combined totals.
Plus, don’t forget that the PC version won’t come out for at least a year, if not longer. So, how much will it sell in one year? There are so many factors involved that it’s truly impossible to say.
