Analysts have updated their Switch 2 predictions, and there’s some good news for Nintendo, and not so great news for gamers who’re still looking to get one.
As reported by Nikkei Asia, both Toyo Securities senior analyst Hideki Yasuda and UBS Securities analyst Zhai Yijia believe that the console sold 6 million units in the first month. Yasuda goes on to predict 20 million units sold by March 2026, whereas Zhai predicts it reaches 18 million units.
Last week, Nintendo debunked the rumor going around that the console had sold 5 million units in a little under a month after launch. While fans originally found this information on Nintendo’s website, it turned out that this was ‘test data’ that accidentally went public. As some people pointed out, another reason to be skeptical is, surprisingly, because they expected the number to be higher.
As we know, Nintendo officially announced that the Switch 2 sold 3.5 million units in its first four days in the market. That makes it the biggest console launch ever. A few weeks later, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa admitted that although they were able to increase manufacturing and distribution to reach this landmark, they’re still not catching up to demand.
To quote Furukawa’s statements from their official Q&A translation:
Currently, for Nintendo Switch 2, demand is exceeding supply in many countries, and we sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may be causing our consumers. I understand that some of our shareholders and their families and friends might still be unable to purchase Nintendo Switch 2.
…We will continue to strengthen our production and supply systems to deliver as many Nintendo Switch 2 systems as possible to our consumers.
That last sentence may sound like it’s only a rote response, but there’s reason to believe that Nintendo has invested their money into it. According to Digitimes’ sources, they have ramped up manufacturing with their partners to go up to 3 million units per months. That’s nearly as many units as they initially sold, and it will go a long way to meeting that still nascent demand for the console.
Nintendo was initially looking at serious challenges for the console’s launch because of the Liberation Day tariffs. They were fortunate that the US government decided to place a 90 day pause on said tariffs, but this pause ends in a matter of days.
While Nintendo averted the worst outcome for the console’s launch, these tariffs could still seriously hurt the Switch 2, and Nintendo itself, for the console’s first year. And while it’s true that consoles can be expected to have up and down periods in its lifetime, its first year is particularly important for its overall success. And so, as Nintendo is looking at breaking numbers, a potential disaster completely out of its control also looms on the horizon.
