We have collected some information on why Bungie isn’t ready to make Destiny 3 – and how they are now holding out hope for Marathon.
This information come from Jeff Grubb, and for this we collected information that he shared on the two video podcasts he was on, GiantBomb Game Mess Mornings, and Jeff Grubb’s Game Mess Decides.
Jeff had already explained that one of the recently cancelled Bungie projects, Payback, was not Destiny 3. It was described as the next big thing for Destiny, but strangely enough, it was sensitive information as to why Bungie was making it instead of Destiny 3.
In any case, the reason Bungie isn’t ready to make Destiny 3 isn’t actually a deep mystery. The future of the Destiny franchise itself is on hold, because of how Destiny 2 has played out. Now, it actually is normal in live service games for gamers to drop off and pick back up again, as new content gets added in. But the frequency of this cycle, and the consistency in retaining players, are keys to live service being successful, and Destiny 2 did not do enough.
Jeff pointed out, based on SteamDB data (and therefore, lacking data on consoles), that The Final Shape made about as much money as Lightfall, but it took longer to do so. As critically acclaimed and well received as The Final Shape was, it was apparently not enough to undo the reputational damage that Lightfall made.
A little while ago, Bungie’s plan was to continue supporting Destiny 2, release new projects in Payback and Marathon, and then go back to Destiny 3 if everything works out. Now that Payback has been cancelled, the stakes for Bungie are much more serious.
Marathon is the next big release, and they’re hoping it will be a huge hit. Bungie has a lot riding on Marathon, and as Jeff puts it:
“You feel like things could blow up in their face if it doesn’t go the right way.”
Now here’s the clincher. Marathon is still planned for release in 2025, according to Grubb. Sony and Bungie haven’t announced any changes to those plans themselves, and of course we are all going to wait and see if they do plan to do so.
But without any announced changes, Marathon is also expected to still release on PlayStation 5, Windows, and also Xbox Series X|S. We don’t know how well development on this title has been progressing, but the pressure is now on for the remaining developers at Bungie, reportedly down by 1/3s of their original headcount, to make it a success.
And Marathon was itself planned to be a bit of risk taking, that originally looked like Bungie could walk away from if it didn’t work out. Is this smaller, less independent Bungie equipped to make a successful extraction shooter, for a parent company that doesn’t understand live service?
Basically, Sony and Bungie are hoping for a miracle to happen with Marathon. One could argue, it’s being set up to fail, too.
