Shinobi602 has properly started the hype cycle for this State of Play, and Santa Monica Studio.
Shinobi602 replied to someone on ResetERA speculating if Santa Monica Studio director Cory Barlog could be at the show. He said this:
Wouldn’t be super surprising given the target release window (this isn’t a confirmation it’ll be there lol)
While Shinobi602 didn’t confirm that Santa Monica Studio’s game will be at the show, he did confirm that Santa Monica has a game that they could announce soon.
Last July, Jason Schreier suggested that Cory Barlog’s next game is not a new IP. So it looks highly likely that this is a new God of War game.
The God of War reboot released in 2018, and God of War Ragnarok released in 2022. If Santa Monica managed to keep their schedule, they could be ready to release the next mainline game already.
But if they still need more time, it could still be coming in the near future, possibly in 2027.