After the rumor mills started gristling again, fans have been asking each other, will Nintendo release the Switch 2 this year? We now have some help in figuring out the answer to this question.
Spawn Wave has made a video explaining the particulars of when Nintendo could make their announcement. We will summarize his observations here, but before that, let’s run down what the recent rumors are.
The news that started speculation running again this year was an entry in new documents the CMA disclosed. The CMA commissioned an independent investigation on the Microsoft Activision deal. That investigation noted that they were excluding Nintendo in investigating cloud gaming, because their service is only available on Nintendo Switch – and then the next section of this document is redacted. Readers speculated the redacted part is reference to a new Nintendo Switch.
After that, a 4chan leaker who accurately predicted items in a recent Pokemon presentation, revealed that Pokemon Scarlet & Violet would be getting a graphical upgrade, for what was called a new Nintendo Switch model. Jeff Grubb covered this story in his podcast, and confirmed that he also heard similar rumors of a new model.
Finally most recently, MVG, a game developer and former hacker and emulator developer, made a video speculating on the possibility the Switch 2 would not be able to run games from the original Switch. While MVG did not share any rumors or speculation on possible release or announcement dates for the Switch 2, his video also drove interest in the console.
So, here’s what Spawn Wave explained.
Nintendo has a timetable for their investor meetings and presentations, and they usually use these meetings and presentations to discuss future consoles as well as games. Nintendo executives at the time like Shigeru Miyamoto and the late Satoru Iwata used these meetings to talk about the hardware releases for the 3DS, Wii U, and Nintendo Switch.
Nintendo’s fiscal year ends at March 31, 2023, with the next fiscal year starting on April 1, 2023. They usually schedule the fiscal year-end report on May 9, and then the shareholders meeting on June 29.
If Nintendo follows their old precedent, they will have the opportunity to talk about their next hardware on May 9 or June 29. We can already expect that they will announce declining sales for the Switch hardware on May 9, but still at a level that the company is profitable, and of course, very cash rich from the pandemic years.
If Nintendo doesn’t take the initiative on May 9, they can do it in front of the shareholders themselves on June 29. But, and here’s the important part, if they still don’t say anything at this point, the shareholders themselves will ask Nintendo to drop hints about their next hardware on the Q&A that follows Nintendo’s presentation.
At the very least, they will be asked about future plans for growth. Now, Nintendo could have answers to those questions, such as still upcoming Switch releases, such as Metroid Prime 4. Or, they could cite new mobile initiatives, like the upcoming Pokemon Sleep. But we don’t expect Nintendo to dodge this question forever. It’s just a matter of when they feel they are ready to announce the hardware, because a release won’t take that much longer after that.
Spawn Wave shares one last note. If Nintendo does decide not to share anything on June 29, 2023, even after the Q&A, then they won’t have enough time to market that Nintendo Switch 2 for holidays 2023. So if it’s happening this year, we should find out by June 29. If not, Nintendo may keep the Switch going for even a little longer now.
You can watch Spawn Wave’s discussion of this topic below.