Nintendo has officially set the bar they intend to meet for the Switch 2.
As revealed in page 9 of their latest financial report, Nintendo forecasts they will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 consoles. They also plan to sell 45 million units of Switch 2 games. Subsequently, Nintendo also hopes to have healthy sales of the original Switch. They forecast 4.5 million units of the Switch console, and a prodigious 105 million Switch games.
Niko Partners analyst Daniel Ahmad chimed in on this news on his Twitter:
Conservative forecast from Nintendo here. Likely factoring in unpredictability around tariffs, pricing and production despite the positive pre-order momentum.
It may be that Nintendo revised their forecast for just a bit, after seeing that US tariffs would have a huge effect on their market, and they’ve been forced to mitigate based on that. Of course, that comes with a tinge of irony, as we know that demand for the Switch 2 is clearly at an all time high.
For what it’s worth, we reported on analysts predicting that demand for the Switch 2 could be as high as 9 million units. To be clear, these are predictions for demand for the console at launch, and not the full year that Nintendo is forecasting. What this means is analysts believe that there’s potential for Nintendo to sell far more than 15 million Switch 2 consoles for the year.
As is the case with how these launches go, the first few weeks will see the bulk of sales, and then there will be an unpredictable period where the long lines for the consoles and games stop. All the console companies have to worry about not knowing exactly when that point comes, and this may be what Nintendo was thinking, if the rumors are true that they decided to delay the Switch 2’s launch.
Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, and Nintendo would have probably been better off if they went ahead with that console launch even just a few months earlier – around the 2024 holidays like a lot of fans expected. Even if there wasn’t enough stock to meet demand, that launch would not have to contend with the challenges surrounding tariffs today.
But as we have kept bringing up, the industry hopes that the Switch 2 launch is what the industry needs to get out of this strange slump it’s on. While companies are still making money on some parts of the business, we’re at the third year of a wave of layoffs and studio closures. It certainly makes sense to imagine that a new platform where developers can bring current generation games to an untapped audience is a clear opportunity. We can only hope for the best, not just for Nintendo, but the industry as a whole.
