The Nintendo Switch has become a console powerhouse since it first hit shelves in 2017. Currently, the fifth-bestselling game console of all time, the handheld device has given gamers some of the most beloved titles of the past half-decade, from The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild to Animal Crossing: New Horizons and new entries in the Pokemon franchise. Now in its sixth year of production, one senior industry analyst has noted that Nintendo’s successor to the Switch isn’t quite on the horizon just yet.
According to Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis, Nintendo’s next console won’t be coming for at least two more years. Nintendo is expected to confirm a timeframe for its next device in the next year.
The company recently said that it believes the Switch is in the middle of its lifecycle, a hypothesis supported by the recently-released OLED model.
In the company’s most recent quarterly financial report, Nintendo revealed that the Switch had sold 107.65 units worldwide, with 4.11 million units sold between January and March of this year. Unit sales were down 20 percent from last year due to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage and supply bottlenecks.
Ampere believes that Switch sales will be on the decline from here on out.
“Switch sales, setting aside the unexpectedly strong growth in 2020 due to the pandemic and Animal Crossing release, are following a traditional console lifecycle shape,” Ampere said in an interview with VGC. “Even with the release of the OLED model, sales were expected to decline from their peak as the Switch reaches year six of the cycle in 2022 and Nintendo’s latest shipment forecast reflects this.
Nintendo has forecast 21 million Switch shipments in the April 2022 to March 2023 fiscal period, down from 23m in FY22. Depending on if the next Zelda game releases before the end of March 2023, that could be considered to be a little conservative.”
The insider noted that Ampere was forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to be released in 2024.
“By the end of that year Switch is predicted to have sold 146m units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.”
