There’s an interesting detail in a previous rumor about Nintendo’s next console that we need to reexamine a week later.
Last week, we reported on a rumor from Omdia analyst Hiroshi Hayase predicting that Nintendo’s next console will have an eight inch LCD screen, and will be releasing this year. But there’s one element in that rumor we neglected to share then.
And that is Hayase’s claim that Nintendo is preparing for 10 million units on the first year of the console’s release. That means that Nintendo will be able to avert the supply issues that the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S went through.
Both the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S launched in 2020. In a case of ill timing for both Sony and Microsoft, these products came in the middle of the pandemic, and that created market conditions that made it harder for them to make and distribute their consoles.
As the world shut down because of the pandemic, demand for chips stalled. However, as the world started slowly reopening through the course of that pandemic, that demand organically grew, from consumers who had the freedom to buy again. In specific, consumers were once again looking for tech products, like phones, game consoles, appliances, all of which needed those chips.
This created the situation that was the global chip shortage, that not only affected game consoles, but practically every tech hardware industry. So, Sony’s and Microsoft’s best planning could not anticipate or avert the situation we are all well familiar with.
As Sony and Microsoft failed to manufacture and distribute PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles to meet demand, they and other game developers were forced to make games on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One as well. This did turn out to be a boon to those gamers who didn’t want to upgrade to newer consoles yet, but of course, the somewhat hidden effects this had to the industry was quite detrimental.
Nintendo truly was placed in providence at this point. While their Nintendo Switch was already long in the tooth, it experienced an unexpected final growth spurt through these same pandemic years. A lot of that came from the timely release of Animal Crossing New Horizons, a life sim game that was perfect for the times.
The success of Animal Crossing New Horizons, and the long tail of their already successful 1st party titles, meant that Nintendo once again amassed a massive warchest of money, and this time they didn’t have to spend all of it on mobile games.
So Nintendo has been biding their time, preparing the Nintendo Switch’s successor. Nintendo presumably has a lot of faith in this new hardware if they’re willing to manufacture that much off the bat. When Nintendo did the same thing with the Wii U, it turned out to be a disaster, as sales stalled for that console after a moderately successful launch.
But if these rumors are correct, Nintendo is presumably playing it safe with this console, iterating and riding on the same hybrid platform market they built. If Nintendo pulls off a successful launch this time, they could be very much on top of this console generation very rapidly.
