One of the CMA’s observations on the Microsoft Activison deal was something that Sony had leveraged in their lobbying against the deal. That Sony did that, however, may only have put the spotlight on how valid the argument was.
On page 178 of the CMA’s decision, they said this:
“First, we note that any negative impact on Microsoft’s reputation did not prevent it from making some ZeniMax games exclusive to Xbox.
In response to the backlash due to Microsoft’s decision to make ZeniMax’s game Starfield exclusive to Xbox and PC, ZeniMax’s head of marketing apologised. This reputational cost did not result in Microsoft making the game available on other platforms.
While CoD [REDACTED] than any ZeniMax games, such that any reputational effect may reasonably be expected to be larger in absolute terms, so too would the other gains and losses from making it exclusive.
We have not seen reasoning or evidence to suggest that reputational effects would ‘scale’ disproportionately with size in a way that would negate any incentive to foreclose CoD.”
As we had already established, the CMA was looking at this decision with the perspective that they were simply not going to trust Microsoft at their word. They have continued this line of thinking, even in cases where they had no evidence to prove that Microsoft had lied or misrepresented to the CMA. Of course, Microsoft is incentivized to make sure any facts and data they give the CMA is correct so that they would not be accused of acting in bad faith.
So the CMA is saying that Starfield being exclusive and staying exclusive proves that Microsoft will not hesitate to pull the exclusivity card. That will stay true even if it hurts their reputation.
However, you may have noted the line “While CoD [REDACTED] than any ZeniMax games, such that any reputational effect may reasonably be expected to be larger in absolute terms”
We can guess pretty easily what this redacted section shows. It shows that Zenimax games are nowhere as huge in terms of revenue and market share as Call of Duty. As big as the Fallout, Doom, and The Elder Scrolls are, these are games that take years to develop and release, and have not been annualized like Call of Duty is. They also don’t have a burgeoning esports scene to keep it relevant and profitable all year round, year after year.
CMA definitely has the evidence that disproves their argument, and they have chosen to go ahead with it anyway.
